I highly doubt Apple will pass Nokia in 2012, what do you think?

As Jason Hiner reported on ZDNet a small research firm predicted that Apple and the iPhone would overtake Nokia in 2012. I think it is ridiculous and impossible to predict the highly volatile smartphone market and to try to predict what will happen in three years is really stretching it. It looks like the chart [...]

As Jason Hiner reported on ZDNet a small research firm predicted that Apple and the iPhone would overtake Nokia in 2012. I think it is ridiculous and impossible to predict the highly volatile smartphone market and to try to predict what will happen in three years is really stretching it. It looks like the chart just assumes that Apple and Nokia continue on their current path, which is a bad assumption. With the upcoming Symbian Foundation operating system being a huge unknown that could propel Nokia to new heights with an even greater market share than they now have. To say that Nokia will fall to 20% while the iPhone approaches 35% in 2013 is extremely premature at this time.

The iPhone has a singular form factor and has been doing incredible the first couple of years in existence. However, as more Android devices roll out, Windows Mobile 7 shows up in force, RIM keeps chipping away with the BlackBerry OS, and Palm struggles to find itself with WebOS I doubt Apple will pass up Nokia.

Nokia has form factors across the spectrum that appeal to a number of people and everyone has to admit they know how to get the phone part of the smartphone right with outstanding reception and call quality. With a Linux-based OS running on their fantastic hardware there is the possibility that we actually see Nokia jump back up over 50% of the worldwide market share like they had a couple years ago.

I won’t begin to make these kind of predictions though because there is way too much going on in the mobile space at the moment. I don’t think any one or two mobile operating systems will knock out al the rest and honestly think in 3 to 5 years we will see the same six major players (Palm WebOS, Google Android, Symbian, iPhone, Windows Mobile, and BlackBerry) in the game. I think the operating systems in the most danger of not staying in the game is Palm WebOS due to the cash situation at Palm, limited rollout with Sprint, and currently limited developer support. I enjoyed using WebOS, but think Google Android does everything and more that WebOS does and with the Symbian Foundation Linux-based OS coming online soon there may not be a place for WebOS in the future.

Source : http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/nokiaexperts/~3/nws...