webOS projected to have just 1.4% market share in 2012

A study recently completed by Gartner, Inc. predicts that in 2012 Palm’s webOS platform will have grabbed a mere 1.4% of the smartphone market with sales of 7.6 million. Gartner’s study holds that in three years annual global smartphone sales will top 525 million units (projected sales for 2009 are around 131 million smartphones). King of Gartner’s projected hill: Symbian, with 37.4% of the market, driven by 196.5 million devices shipped - though that is a drop from Symbian’s expected ~50% marketshare for 2009 (but still 20 million more units than 2009). The by-OS breakdown for 2012:

We aren’t too keen on these numbers. We can’t quite put our finger on why, but we have a feeling that the numbers for Android, iPhone, and webOS are too low, and that Symbian is frankly too high. And Maemo, which is currently only available on the N900 and will likely only be on N and E-series Nokia devices, garnering 23.5 million in sales in three years? We’re not analysts of any variety, but we really have to question the picture that Gartner is trying to paint of the future of the smartphone market - it just doesn’t mesh with the emerging trends that we are seeing.

Gartner also takes a bold stand on the growth of smartphones, which is generally agreed to be explosive in nature. While most research firms are predicting that sales in the 2012 timeframe will be up around 300-400 million, Gartner is predicting over 500 million. As with the opinions of stock analysts, the “research studies” of firms like Gartner should be taken with a few grains of salt. If you don’t believe me, consider that in 2006 alone Gartner predicted that Vista would be the last Windows OS release, proclaimed that Apple should quit making hardware and license Mac OS X, and determined that 2007 would mark the zenith of blogging.

Then again, the world is going to end in 2012, so what does it matter?

Thanks to Mike for the tip!